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| News > Industry News |
| Current status and development trend of Chinese semiconductors |
| Time： 2018-06-20 |
Forecasting the growth of the global semiconductor industry every year is one of the functions of the market analysis company. The forecast for the market at the beginning of the year is basically dependent on the growth kinetic energy of the 2016, which should continue to 2017, despite the decline in the terminal product market, such as the weak growth of smartphones, and the decline in the computer, etc. In the future, the AI, the Internet of things and self driving have not really come to an outburst. So the market analysis company remains cautious and optimistic about the growth of the global semiconductor industry at the beginning of the year in 2017. For example, when the famous WSTS released a forecast of 3.3% in November 2016, another IC Insight forecast growth of 5%.
But "people are not as good as the sky." in 2017, something unexpected happened. One was that silicon prices were falling in ten years. This year, the price of silicon began to rise, and the lack of stock and the other is the cycle of memory prices rising, which led them to increase their forecasts, such as the WSTS growth of 17% in August, and the increase of Insight. The length is 22%.
Their prediction values are allowed to be corrected several times with the market changes, so their final prediction is almost always correct. Obviously, it is very difficult to really predict the situation of the industry and guide the operation of the enterprise.
China's semiconductor industry is unsynchronized with the world
In 2017, the growth of the global semiconductor industry exceeded the expectations of most people, especially the memory industry.
IC Insight predicted that the average sales price (ASP) of DRAM in 2017 increased by 77%, leading to a 74% increase in DRAM sales this year, the highest since the growth of 78% in 1994. For NAND flash, its ASP grew by 38%, resulting in a 44% increase in sales in 2017. Global memory is expected to grow by 58% and 11% in 2018.
IC Insights estimates that 2017 DRAM market sales will be $72 billion, the largest product of the semiconductor industry this year, over $22 billion over $49 billion 800 million in the FLASH market. Because of the strong growth rate of memory this year, the sales of semiconductors increased by 22% in 2017, of which the memory accounted for 13 percentage points. If the growth rate of DRAM and FLASH was deducted, the semiconductor sales growth was only 9% in 2017, and it was obviously less than half of the overall sales growth rate of 22%.
Faced with the high growth trend of the global semiconductor industry, the development of China's semiconductor industry seems to have no linkage effect. The analysis shows certain inevitability, because the main growth momentum this year comes from memory, and from the Chinese semiconductor industry chain, memory has just started to be laid out and will not necessarily have big sales by 2019. Moreover, from the perspective of global OEM, this year's situation is not as good as last year's.
Therefore, in the near future of the core international Q3 law, the top of the middle core also confessed that its Q3 gross profit rate was 23%, compared with 25.8% of Q2 this year and 30% of Q3 in the same period last year. The main reason is low start rate, only 83.9%.
At present, the central international is facing the two transition period. The first is the management transformation, as the industry knows, Mr. Liang Mengsong's accession; the second is the strategic transformation, it has to cover the product line more widely, and at the same time, we must vigorously develop the advanced process technology to narrow the gap between the international counterparts.
In addition, with the change of the industrial environment, the International Center has changed the following three aspects. The first is to develop a large number of new manufacturing processes and a productivity climbing process, which obviously affects its gross interest rate; the second aspect is the average price of the silicon producer, and the whole market has been in short supply last year. The third aspect is that the capital expenditure of the core is increasing, and the good thing is that the spending part has been converted into productivity, but at the same time they are beginning to break down the old and lead to a decline in the gross interest rate.
SMIC has made strategic adjustments in a timely manner, and has made positive progress towards marketization, fully reflecting its upward dynamism and letting the industry see new hope.
epilogue
China's chip manufacturing industry is unlikely to maintain an average annual growth rate of 20%. Some ups and downs are perfectly normal. At the present stage, various feasible methods are being promoted and practiced, and many experiences and lessons have been summed up. Although it is fundamental to strengthen research and development, it is a matter of "planting trees by the predecessors and taking the cool of the future". The investment risk is large and the cycle is long. However, only the results of research and development can really fall in their own hands, and there is no shortcut to go.
If there is something "magic square" can be used, as Zhou Zixue, President of China core international, speaking at the 30th anniversary International Conference, the success factor of the enterprise, the 10% is the capital, the 30% is the good team, and the 60% is the persistence, and then the determination and confidence to keep on.
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